India’s Strategic Missteps in the Northeast: A Shift in Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy
The Doklam Standoff and the Siliguri Corridor: A Reckoning for India
In June 2017, Indian and Chinese troops faced off on the Doklam plateau in Bhutan, sparking a 73-day standoff that highlighted the strategic vulnerability of India’s northeast. The conflict arose from a Chinese road construction project that threatened India’s Siliguri Corridor—a narrow strip of land connecting the northeast to the rest of the country. This corridor, just 22 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, is a lifeline for India’s northeastern states, which are landlocked and rely on Bangladesh for access to the sea. The standoff underscored the precariousness of India’s position, as the fate of its northeast could hinge on the goodwill of its neighbors.
Recent developments in Bangladesh have reignited concerns about this strategic vulnerability. Since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh has shifted its foreign policy, aligning more closely with China and Pakistan. This shift has led to a diplomatic rift with India, marked by mutual suspicion and a dangerous blame game. India, now struggling to shape the global narrative after its recent clashes with Pakistan, finds itself in a precarious position as its eastern neighbor moves closer to its adversaries.
Bangladesh’s New Leadership and Its Strategic Moves
The new leadership in Bangladesh, under interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus, has taken a more assertive stance in foreign policy. During a visit to China in March 2025, Yunus openly discussed the strategic importance of the Siliguri Corridor, calling for Chinese economic and military cooperation. His remarks drew strong reactions in New Delhi, where the government viewed them as a threat to India’s security. China, in turn, responded with significant economic incentives, including duty-free access for Bangladeshi exports and a $2.1 billion funding commitment, signaling a deepening of bilateral ties.
Yunus has also sought to strengthen ties with Pakistan, a move that has raised alarms in India. Bangladesh has reportedly invited Pakistan to build an air base near the Siliguri Corridor, a development that could have profound implications for regional stability. These moves reflect a broader strategy of hedging, as Bangladesh seeks to reduce its dependence on India and assert its own foreign policy autonomy.
India’s Response: A Mix of Threats and Economic Coercion
India has responded to Bangladesh’s new foreign policy with a mix of threats and economic measures. The government has suspended a key transshipment facility that allowed Bangladesh to route exports through Indian ports, a move widely interpreted as retaliation for Dhaka’s closer ties with China. India has also imposed restrictions on Bangladeshi exports, limiting access to the Indian market and affecting the garment industry. These actions, while framed as necessary for national security, risk deepening the rift between the two countries.
India’s rhetoric has often blamed China and Pakistan for Bangladesh’s new foreign policy, but the reality is more complex. Bangladesh’s shift is driven by a desire to reduce its reliance on India and gain more strategic autonomy. China’s offer of economic incentives and Pakistan’s historical ties with Bangladesh have made this a difficult choice for the Bangladeshi leadership.
The Strategic and Economic Implications
The strategic consequences of Bangladesh’s pivot are profound. The country’s move away from India threatens to undermine counterterrorism cooperation, which is vital for containing cross-border militancy in India’s volatile northeast. Economic ties, once a source of mutual benefit, are fraying, with trade disruptions and rising protectionism on both sides. Most dangerously, the risk of border incidents or even insurgent resurgence in India’s northeast is growing.
India’s economic coercion has also had unintended consequences. By restricting Bangladeshi exports, India has increased costs for the garment industry, which is a major part of Bangladesh’s economy. This move has not only affected trade but also strained bilateral relations, creating a cycle of retaliation and mistrust.
The Path Forward: Rebuilding Trust and Reimagining Strategy
To arrest the downward spiral, India must first look inward. The Modi government has been criticized for its handling of Bangladesh, with its focus on economic coercion and Islamophobic rhetoric. Instead of blaming external actors, India must recommit to democratic values and respect for its neighbors. The government must work to curb Islamophobic rhetoric within its ranks and avoid letting its Hindu-majoritarian domestic politics dictate its foreign policy.
India should also consider a more cooperative approach, offering positive incentives such as trade, investment, and connectivity projects that benefit both sides. Building coalitions, not dependencies, is the only sustainable path to regional stability. The current situation is a test of whether India can adapt to a multipolar South Asia, where smaller states are reasserting their sovereignty. If the Modi government fails to recalibrate, it risks not only the loss of Indian influence in Bangladesh but also the unraveling of its entire Neighborhood First and Act East policies.
The lesson is clear: Strategic depth cannot be bought with autocratic bargains or defended with force alone. It must be earned through respect, restraint, and a willingness to see neighbors as equals.