India-Pakistan tensions: Donald Trump’s Kashmir mediation offer puts India in a tight spot
For decades, if there’s one thing that’s been a taboo in the Indian foreign ministry, it is third-party mediation – particularly in the long-running dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir.
Those in the know, then, are not surprised that US President Donald Trump – known for his unorthodox diplomacy – has touched a raw nerve in Delhi.
On Saturday, he took to social media to announce that India and Pakistan – after four tense days of cross-border clashes – had agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire”, brokered by the US.
Later, in another post he said: “I will work with you both to see if, after a thousand years, a solution can be arrived at, concerning Kashmir.”
The Kashmir dispute dates back to 1947, when India got independence from British rule and was partitioned to create Pakistan. Both neighbours claim the Kashmir region in whole, but administer it only in part.
Several rounds of bilateral talks over the decades have not yielded any resolution. India treats Kashmir as an integral part of its territory and rules out any negotiation, particularly through a third party.
The latest flare-up began after India carried out air strikes on what it called terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan in the aftermath of the attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month, killing 26 people, mainly tourists.
India blames Pakistan of involvement in the incident, a charge denied by Islamabad.
Trump’s intervention came as fighting between the two nuclear-armed rivals was threatening to spiral into a full-blown conflict.
The two sides were using fighter jets, missiles and drones and said they were targeting each other’s military installations, mainly in the border areas.
While US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels, prevented a bigger conflagration, President Trump’s offer has put Delhi in a spot.
“Obviously, it would not be welcome by the Indian side. It goes against our stated position for many years,” Shyam Saran, a former Indian foreign secretary, tells the BBC.
Islamabad, on the other hand, has welcomed Trump’s comments.
“We also appreciate President Trump’s expressed willingness to support efforts aimed at the resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute – a longstanding issue that has serious implications for peace and security in South Asia and beyond,” a foreign ministry statement said.
Delhi’s position on Kashmir has hardened, especially after it withdrew the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, triggering widespread protests in Kashmir.
President Trump’s recent comments have irked many Indians, who see this as an attempt to “internationalise” the Kashmir dispute.
The main opposition Congress party wanted an explanation from the government and an all-party meeting on the “ceasefire announcements made from Washington DC first”.
“Have we opened the doors to third-party mediation? The Indian National Congress would like to ask if diplomatic channels between India and Pakistan are being reopened,” said the Congress party spokesman Jairam Ramesh.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement announcing the ceasefire also said that the two countries have also agreed “to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site”. This has caught the Indians by surprise.
Delhi has refused to hold discussions with Islamabad, accusing its neighbour of supporting what it calls cross-border terrorism.
Historically, India has opposed any third-party mediation in the Kashmir issue in the absence of mutual trust between the two countries.
India’s assertive diplomacy, particularly since Modi took over in 2014, has been seen as a sign of its confidence as a rising global economic power.
But it will have to pull off a tough balancing act, to stave off Trump’s advances.
The US has courted India in recent years as a bulwark against an increasingly assertive China. India is a key member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue group (Quad), along with the US, Australia and Japan, that was formed to counter Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.
In recent decades, Washington has also sold modern transport planes, helicopters and other military equipment to Delhi, which is keen to modernise its 1.4 million strong military, that relies heavily on Russian weaponry.
The previous American administrations were aware of India’s sensitivities towards the Kashmir issue and largely stayed away from interfering with it. But with Trump, there’s a question mark over whether that position still holds.
The US is the largest trading partner of India with bilateral trade reaching about $130bn (£98bn) in endid