In the Nuclear Era: UK Analyst Discusses India-Pakistan Military Exchange
India and Pakistan Engage in Reciprocal Strikes, Sparking Global Concern
New Delhi: Dr. Walter Ladwig, a professor at King’s College London, has highlighted the unprecedented nature of the recent military exchange between India and Pakistan, marking the first instance of two nuclear-armed nations engaging in continuous airstrikes and counter-strikes. The incident, which unfolded in response to the Pahalgam terror attack, has raised global concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalation.
Analysis of Operation Sindoor: A Strategic Move or a Risk?
Dr. Ladwig, who has authored an analysis titled ‘Calibrated Force: Operation Sindoor and the Future of Indian Deterrence’ for the Royal United Services Institute, emphasized that India’s military action was a calculated response to the terrorist attack and not a provocation for a broader conflict with Pakistan. He noted that the operation demonstrated the Indian Air Force’s capabilities over the past decade, while also signaling a new phase in the dynamics between the two nuclear-armed nations.
Operation Sindoor: Precision Strikes and Strategic Intent
The operation, codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeted nine terror bases in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) in response to the April 22 attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam that killed 26 tourists. The Resistance Front, a faction of the banned LeT group, claimed responsibility for the attack. The strikes, which took place between May 6 and 7, were followed by a three-night exchange of fire between the two nations.
On May 10, India and Pakistan reached an agreement to halt all military actions, with the ceasefire taking effect at 5 p.m. Dr. Ladwig described the operation as an attempt to shift the onus onto Pakistan, stating that India does not need to prove beyond reasonable doubt the links between the attack and the terrorists, as long as the terrorists are not given the space to operate.
India’s Strategic Calculus: Precision, Deterrence, and Escalation
Dr. Ladwig noted that India’s approach to counter-terrorism has evolved over the years, with surgical strikes in the past but never made public. The 2019 Balakot airstrikes marked a departure from this precedent, and Operation Sindoor represents the next level of this strategy. He emphasized that the operation was not just about punishing the terrorists but also about demonstrating India’s ability to strike and escalate, which is a key aspect of deterrence.
Challenges Ahead: Escalation and Intelligence Limitations
However, Dr. Ladwig warned that the ability to track and monitor terrorist movements will become more difficult as groups adopt more concealment tactics. He suggested that the cat-and-mouse game between India and Pakistan could lead to increased operational complexity, as terrorists may become harder to locate and track.
Global Perspective: India’s Position in the International Community
Dr. Ladwig also noted that India has benefited from international support following the Pahalgam attack, with messages of solidarity and understanding from various countries. However, he cautioned that India should not take this for granted, as the global community remains vigilant about the region’s stability. The operation has also raised questions about India’s long-term strategic goals and the need to demonstrate its capabilities in the face of potential threats.
Conclusion: A New Era in Nuclear Deterrence
The recent military exchange between India and Pakistan has marked a significant moment in the nuclear era, with both nations showcasing their capabilities and setting the stage for future developments. Dr. Ladwig’s analysis suggests that the incident will be studied in the coming decades, as it represents a new phase in the dynamics of nuclear deterrence and regional security.