India-Pakistan Hostilities Complicate India’s Diplomatic Options

The dust is settling slowly from the recent military clash between India and Pakistan, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that took effect on May 10. The conflict, rooted in India’s decision to punish Pakistan for its alleged role in a brutal Islamist attack in Kashmir, has left many details unclear. Both governments have been reluctant to admit losses, and misinformation on social media has further obscured the situation. Hypernationalist media in both countries have also fueled speculation, with some outlets fabricating claims of military coups and cross-border invasions.

Despite the lack of clarity, the scale of the conflict was enough to alarm world leaders. The fighting included massive aerial dogfights, relentless shelling, and the deepest incursions into each other’s territories in nearly half a century. While the battlefield remains shrouded in confusion, the conflict has brought to light broader trends in the geopolitical landscape, particularly the evolving dynamics of India’s foreign policy.

India has long adhered to a nonalignment strategy, avoiding formal alliances with major powers to maintain diplomatic independence. However, this tradition, once a strategic choice during the Cold War, has become increasingly difficult to sustain in a world divided by U.S.-China rivalry. The United States now faces a delicate balancing act: deepening cooperation with India while respecting its commitment to diplomatic autonomy.

The Evolution of Nonalignment

For a newly independent nation, India’s nonalignment was as much an instinct as a deliberate policy. In 1956, India condemned the Anglo-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt during the Suez Crisis while also criticizing Soviet intervention in Hungary. This approach, rooted in Gandhi’s moral vision, allowed India to champion decolonization, peaceful dispute resolution, and non-interference in international affairs. This stance earned India global respect, helping it lead the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which now includes 120 countries.

India’s nonalignment brand was so successful that some observers express frustration that it persists despite shifts in the country’s approach. Wars with Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 forced India to tilt toward the Soviet Union, even as it retained nonalignment rhetoric. The Soviet collapse later led to a redefinition of nonalignment, with India emphasizing “strategic autonomy.” By the early 2000s, “multialignment” became the preferred term, reflecting India’s ability to navigate multiple relationships without formal alliances.

U.S. policymakers often find India’s nonalignment tradition frustrating. To American sensibilities, it is seen as an excuse for India to act independently without regard to alliances. However, some, like former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, have praised India’s strategic independence, even if it has at times been perceived as intransigent.

A Clarifying Moment

Military confrontation often reveals the true geopolitical realities. India’s conflict with Pakistan has underscored the persistence of Cold War-like dynamics in the Indo-Pakistani rivalry. Coverage of the conflict has highlighted how new technological rivalries echo past Cold War tensions, with one New York Times headline declaring that “India vs. Pakistan Is Also U.S. vs. China When It Comes to Arms Sales.” The conflict has also shown how India and Pakistan have altered their military suppliers, with Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10 jets reportedly downing India’s French Rafale jets, and India using Israeli technology for its drones.

Diplomatically, the crisis has reinforced U.S.-India and China-Pakistan ties. U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, have supported India’s response to the Pahalgam attack, signaling approval for a strong retaliation against Pakistan. Meanwhile, China has supported Pakistan, describing it as an “ironclad friend” and a major recipient of Chinese investment and advanced weaponry.

India now faces the challenge of recalibrating its nonalignment tradition in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. The world—and particularly the Indo-Pacific— is realigning around Sino-American rivalry. India’s growing global influence, with a GDP significantly larger than Pakistan’s, suggests it is evolving into a major power. However, Pakistan’s economic strength and continued support for India’s enemies complicate this trajectory, suggesting the need for closer U.S.-India collaboration.

India’s nonalignment tradition, however, resists becoming a formal alliance. The U.S. has long sought a traditional ally in India, but India’s desire for a unique, equal relationship with the U.S. is rooted in its historical independence and desire to avoid becoming a Western ally. The recent conflict has shown the need for U.S.-India cooperation, but the aftermath has also revealed areas for improvement, including the Quad’s failure to support India adequately and India’s neglect to acknowledge the U.S.’s role in brokering the ceasefire.