India-Pakistan Ceasefire Fragile, Return to War Uncertain
Despite the odds, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan has held after four days of intense cross-border military activity, marking the most advanced conflict in the region’s history. However, the fragile peace remains under pressure as both nations grapple with the aftermath of the confrontation, raising questions about the likelihood of renewed hostilities.
India and Pakistan have both claimed tactical victories, but analysts warn that a return to war is not only possible but increasingly likely. The ceasefire, though temporarily suspended, has not resolved the deep-seated tensions that have defined the relationship between the two nations for decades.
The India-Pakistan Hyphenation
India’s military actions have targeted known militant strongholds in Pakistan, including strikes on Rawalpindi, the heart of Pakistan’s military infrastructure. However, the strategic outcomes of the conflict remain uncertain. As noted by Indian political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta, the conflict has not produced a clear resolution but has reinforced the historical tendency to view India and Pakistan as a single entity in international relations.
India’s government has struggled to control the narrative surrounding the conflict, with limited public communication and a focus on military operations. In contrast, Pakistan’s government has been more transparent, with frequent updates on the situation and claims of Indian military incursions. This information gap has fueled public sentiment in India, with many viewing the ceasefire as a betrayal.
The U.S. involvement in brokering the ceasefire has further complicated the situation. While Trump’s intervention was intended to de-escalate tensions, it has been met with skepticism in India, particularly regarding the perceived motivations behind the U.S. stance. The conflict has also led to the re-internationalization of the Kashmir issue, a topic that India has long sought to keep internal.
Trump’s Intervention Adds to Tensions
India has expressed frustration with Trump’s role in the ceasefire, which was brokered without significant input from either side. Trump’s claims that trade disputes led to the ceasefire have been criticized as misleading. Additionally, his offer to mediate a resolution has been seen as a strategic move that benefits Pakistan.
The Kashmir issue remains a flashpoint, with India insisting that the dispute is internal and should not be subject to external mediation. Pakistan, however, has embraced the opportunity to highlight the issue as a justification for its military actions. This has created a cycle of conflict that is difficult to break.
Despite the ceasefire, the border remains closed, and visa exchanges are suspended. The Indus River treaty, which is crucial for Pakistan’s water supply, remains in limbo. These issues, along with the political and military tensions, suggest that the path to de-escalation is fraught with challenges.
Analysts argue that both nations have little incentive to reduce tensions. In India, the conflict has bolstered support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while in Pakistan, the threat of India has been a key factor in the military’s continued influence over the government. The lack of trust and the deep-rooted animosities make a lasting peace process unlikely.
Experts warn that the current situation is a prelude to further conflict, with the possibility of renewed hostilities growing with each passing day. The fragile ceasefire is a temporary reprieve, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved, setting the stage for future confrontations.