Can China’s Arms Market Recover From India-Pakistan War Embarrassment?

India’s Operation Sindoor has left a lasting impact on both Pakistan and China. Pakistan faces criticism for its role in cross-border terrorism and the significant loss of military assets, while China is scrutinized for the failure of its military equipment sold to Pakistan and the diplomatic fallout of supporting a longstanding ally.

Diplomatic Embarrassment

Following the Pahalgam terror attacks, China expressed concern over India’s actions and called for restraint, while reaffirming its support for Pakistan in regional and international forums. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in discussions with Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, though no concrete proposals were made.

Ironically, Chinese bloggers criticized India for ‘escalation’ and described its actions as ‘destabilizing,’ while praising Pakistan’s drone strikes on Indian borders. Many even suggested that Pakistan was not involved in cross-border terrorism, despite substantial evidence to the contrary. China’s attempts to mediate between the two nations were met with limited success when Pakistan opted to seek a ceasefire from the United States.

China’s efforts to downplay Pakistan-based terrorists and its diplomatic backing of Islamabad have damaged its image as a responsible global actor. Its prioritization of a ‘friendship’ with Pakistan at the expense of strategic considerations is expected to hinder long-term objectives.

The Story Of The J-10Cs and JF-17s

China sold Pakistan its ‘vibrant dragon’ J-10C fighter aircraft at $40 million per unit, with 20 out of 36 sold since 2022. In comparison, the F-16 costs around $80 million, and the Rafale exceeds $200 million. Pakistan claimed to have downed six Indian aircraft, but no wreckage, pilot capture, or satellite evidence was provided. India, however, provided satellite evidence of its precision strikes on 11 airfields in Pakistan, with all pilots safely returning.

China also supplied Pakistan’s JF-17 ‘Thunder’ Block III under a license manufacturing agreement. These 156 aircraft cost Pakistan around $35 million each, with similar missiles and radars. Both the J-10 and JF-17 are equipped with PL-15 missiles, which have a range of 150 to 200 km, comparable to the Rafale’s Meteor missile. Both aircraft use the WS-10B engine, but it is less efficient than the Rafale’s Snecma M88-2. Compared to Indian aircraft, the Chinese-supplied planes have lower payload, shorter combat range, and reduced survivability. Pakistan’s defense spokesman confirmed the loss of two JF-17s in Indian retaliatory attacks.

The Missiles That Missed

Several PL-15 missiles crashed without explosion in Hoshiarpur and Bhatinda districts of Punjab. Chinese bloggers criticized Pakistan’s defense forces for their lack of professionalism and for being inadequately trained to handle the Chinese-supplied equipment. They pointed to Pakistan’s failure to integrate advanced air defense systems, lack of coordination with Chinese personnel, and poor real-time response.

The Air Defence Systems That Failed

China supplied Pakistan with the HQ-9P air defense system in 2021, including 192 missiles, 12 targeting radars, 48 launch vehicles, and other equipment, costing $600 million. These were meant to protect Lahore and Sialkot. However, neither the HQ-9P system nor the Chinese ISR equipment detected incoming Indian missiles. In 2018, China sold 48 Wing Loong II drones to Pakistan, which were destroyed by Indian Jaguar strikes at Sukkur air base.

A Missed Opportunity

This was the first time since the 1979 Vietnam War that China had the opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of its military equipment. Its military participated in the ongoing Taiwan Straits mobilization but lacked a real combat environment. Operation Sindoor proved to be a disappointment for China’s military.

Financially, China may face setbacks due to the India-Pakistan conflict. With hesitation, it must choose between Islamabad and New Delhi for trade and economic interests, particularly in light of Trump’s tariffs. Although a tariff reduction agreement was reached in Geneva between the U.S. and China, the deal is temporary.

Confidence Lost

Significantly, China viewed the India-Pakistan conflict as a platform to showcase its military equipment. However, its poor performance in Pakistan has shaken its arms market. For example, after the ceasefire announcement, China’s AVIC Chengdu and Zhuzhou Hongda saw their stock prices drop by 9%, from an initial gain. The lackadaisical performance of Chinese military equipment in Pakistan has undermined business confidence, leading to a decline in stock prices. In contrast, the Mumbai stock exchange rebounded by over 3.5% after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Demand for Indian arms exports is rising, particularly for Brahmos and Akash.

Thus, diplomatically, militarily, and financially, China’s involvement in the India-Pakistan conflict has proven to be costly.